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By 2028, CTV ad revenue is predicted to soar by 10.4 percent worldwide

TV remote launching into space as a rocket ship.

Illustration by Esther Park / Getty / The Current

In its annual “This Year Next Year” report for 2023, GroupM highlights CTV as among the top five trends integral to its forecast, along with artificial intelligence, data regulation, retail media, and new business growth. By 2028, the report finds that the category is predicted to have an impressive compound annual growth rate of 10.4 percent in worldwide ad revenue. This underscores the ongoing shift in viewing habits, as audiences move from traditional television toward digital streaming platforms.

Breaking down the global ad revenue growth on connected TV (CTV) over the past few years, GroupM cited ad revenue of $10.1 billion up by 16 percent in 2019, while in 2020 ad revenue increased by 27 percent to $12.8 billion. Moreover, a substantial 41.1 percent surge in 2021 to $18.1 billion, and a continued growth of 26 percent in 2022 to $22.8 billion. According to the report, it’s possible that this trend is linked to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, where increasing audience engagement has led to higher advertising expenditures. This also excludes U.S. political ad revenue.  

In a similar vein, subscription-video-on-demand (SVOD) expenditure by viewers in 2023 is nudging a substantial one-fifth to one-third of total video outlay in key markets like India, China, and the U.S. The report proposes that this development leaves an opportunity for streaming services to scale their subscriber base in those markets.  

GroupM tells The Current that methodologies for estimating historical figures vary depending on the country and medium. GroupM estimates media owners’ ad revenues rather than ad spending, using a combination of available data, extrapolations, and their own historical estimates.

Forecasts are based on local market estimates and models, with global historical growth rates calculated using a multistep process to produce like-for-like growth rates for individual media.