Major TV network flags ‘discrepancies’ in Nielsen Big Data + Panel ratings

The Video Advertising Bureau (VAB), the trade group representing TV networks, is sparring with Nielsen over the stability of its Big Data + Panel currency. 

The VAB shared ratings data over a monthlong period using Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel measurement, which, according to President Sean Cunningham, shows “instability, unpredictability and high variability.” The findings reinforce the data the VAB shared with The Current earlier this week.

The analysis included 33 networks — a mix of broadcast, Spanish-language networks and cable networks with and without live sports and news. Across those networks, there were more than14,000 hours where Big Data + Panel varied by at least 50% either over- or underreporting compared to panel-only measurement during the same period.

Overall, nearly half of all television-viewing hours during the month analyzed were either 20% higher or 20% lower than the panel-only data. 

“This level of currency instability is not what buyers and sellers signed up for,” Cunningham said. “This really does break the fundamental promise of what currency is supposed to function as in the marketplace.”

A source working at a major TV network told The Current that they believed the VAB’s concerns were legitimate, noting that it moved into Big Data + Panel — fully adopted by Nielsen in September — knowing there could be challenges.

“As we’ve continued working with the data, and after reviewing the VAB report, we’re seeing additional discrepancies that deserve a closer look,” the TV network source said.

Nielsen disputed the findings, arguing that comparing Big Data + Panel to panel-only measurement is an invalid methodology. The company said the analysis is incomplete without out-of-home ratings, live and same-day ratings and digital in TV ratings measurement, which counts digital viewing on TV screens.

“This report is seriously flawed and manipulated,” a Nielsen spokesperson told The Current. “From what we have seen, the VAB incorrectly pulled our data, and the bureau does not know how to do a proper ratings analysis. The VAB is wasting the time and money of its members.”

Counting the NFL’s massive audiences

The NFL is central to the dispute. The VAB reported data that suggested hundreds of thousands of viewers were being lost in some NFL windows. Just before the NFL season started, the league accused Nielsen of undercounting millions of viewers. The ratings giant has touted big ratings increases for the NFL this season.

According to the VAB, up to 40% of NFL broadcast windows had a double-digit variance, an outcome Cunningham said was baffling given the league’s historically stable viewership.

“It’s going to take some kind of herculean effort to correct this,” Cunningham said. “This is a broken demographic model.”

Nielsen countered that the flaw lies in the VAB’s measurement approach, arguing that time-period data is inappropriate for analyzing NFL games and that program-level data should be used instead. Nielsen also cited an internal test covering the same month of viewing, which included same-day ratings and showed gains across more than 70 networks.

Notably, the overall number of hours with 20% variance in the VAB report was very low. However, there were twice as many hours with a 20% variance in the 18 to 34, 18 to 49 and 25 to 54 demos compared to the 55 and older demo. 

Cunningham claims that apparent stability is the result of smoothing cumulative ratings. He added that while the VAB didn’t shared this dataset with Nielsen ahead of time, the group has raised concerns about Big Data + Panel for the past 18 months — until, in his words, “we were blue in the face.”

An industry source close to measurement was more dismissive of the VAB’s position. “That group’s members have had issues with Nielsen for over a decade,” the source said. “The VAB is merely the mouthpiece for those bellyaches, which, personally for me at this point, are more performative than substantive. There’s nothing stopping any of the VAB members from refusing to sell on Nielsen and only sell on, say, Comscore or VideoAmp.”

Despite this, agencies, brands and TV networks have been slow to pull away from Nielsen’s decades-long dominance. Cunningham, however, believes that shift is coming.  

“You’ll see more change in place for the [2026] upfronts than came in the two or three decades before,” Cunningham said. “It’s coming fast.”