Nielsen shifts all ratings to Big Data + Panel, but some are skeptical

Any Nielsen stat about ratings or viewership numbers — from broadcasters, networks or streamers — will now be based on its Big Data + Panel methodology.

The change, which took effect September 1, marks Nielsen’s latest big push into Big Data + Panel. It also comes at a critical moment: the start of the broadcast TV season, the return of the NFL, college football, NBA and NHL seasons and upfronts activations in October.

This news comes as the NFL accused Nielsen of drastically underestimating viewership for games in a bombshell story from The Wall Street Journal. The league’s chief data and analytics officer Paul Ballew claims millions of viewers are not being counted.

One of his core contentions is that Big Data + Panel doesn’t include first-party audience data from many of the streaming services that broadcast NFL games. A Nielsen spokesperson tells The Current that the company has deals with Amazon, Netflix and YouTube and is working to get first party data deals with ESPN, Fox, NBCUniversal and CBS.

Accurate viewership numbers are crucial to advertisers and broadcasters. They set the cost of ads, determine whether advertisers could be paying too little or too much, and dictate whether broadcasters owe ‘make goods’ in the form of free inventory if targets aren’t met.

This year’s upfronts cycle was the first with Big Data + Panel as Nielsen’s official currency. With billions of dollars activating in October, this move represents a changing of the guard for the industry’s legacy measurement player. Rivals like VideoAmp, Comscore and iSpot have built their business models with big data as core, rather than measuring primarily through panels.“ The embrace of Big Data + Panel ratings marks a once-in-a-generation enhancement for the industry,” Karthik Rao, Nielsen’s CEO, said in a statement. “Combining the trusted, historical measurement of our Nielsen homes with millions of big data inputs gives us the most accurate numbers ever.”

Two industry insiders say Nielsen had little choice on timing: September 1 acts as the de facto fiscal year for TV. Waiting would have pushed the change off until fall 2026.

Still, some observers remain skeptical: One former measurement exec argued that Nielsen is “rushing to get this change made because they know they have to start the new currency at the start of the TV season. You can't switch it halfway through.”

Another source, who also worked at a measurement company, believes Nielsen is in a bind by fully going 100% into Big Data + Panel. Audience measurement has advanced so much that panel-only measurement is outdated. Yet, they don’t want to rock the boat by having wildly different figures after the change to Big Data + Panel.

“[Nielsen’s] been working very hard to minimize the change in reported data [on top of] trying to manage the paradoxical task of introducing big data, totally changing everything and yet having as little change as possible to the numbers they report,” the source says.

Nielsen remains confident in its product and is undeterred by those claims or any other outside noise, a spokesperson confirmed.

Nielsen’s Rao recently told Variety “We do things right and we get pummeled for it sometimes. But the reality is, it’s balancing innovation with stewardship, right? That’s always the trick when you’re in the role we’re in,”

Bill Harvey, a consultant for Nielsen and longtime media researcher, confirmed in an article that the changes between the old and new methodology are “quite small.”

Football leads the charge

Overall, live sports are expected to benefit the most from Big Data + Panel. The Sports Business Journal reported in August that big data adds a 5% to 8% compared to panel-only measurement.

A Nielsen spokesperson tells The Current the company is confident in Big Data + Panel: “Nielsen is the leading provider of measurement data for live sports. We have partnerships in place with every major professional sports league and broadcaster/streamer.”

One of the measurement sources agreed, noting that live sports underpin Nielsen’s stronghold in currency and measurement.

Today, Nielsen still controls an estimated 80% to 90% of the national currency market today. In July, Nielsen renewed multi-year Big Data + Panel measurement and currency deals with seven major agencies, including the six big holding companies. A Nielsen spokesperson also confirmed that a global advertiser recently did the same.