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Retail media is expected to grow 8.3 percent in 2024, continuing its rapid rise

A bar graph made of yellow stripes on pavement, with the largest bar made of a stack of shopping carts shown from above and a woman walking away with a cart.

Illustration by Robyn Phelps / Shutterstock / The Current

Here’s the thing:

GroupM is back with its annual This Year Next Year global end-of-year forecast, and while retail media may be the smallest segment within the digital advertising universe, its influence is only growing bigger. The report finds that in 2023, retail media added more than $10 billion in revenue, up 9.8 percent, totaling an estimated $119.4 billion in spend. It is forecast to expand another 8.3 percent in 2024.

Overall, GroupM projects the 2023 global ad market will rise 5.8 percent, with global revenue expected to reach $889 billion (excluding the impact of U.S. political advertising).

Data debrief:

GroupM also highlights notable growth spurts for cinema and out-of-home (OOH). Expect cinema ad revenue to add nearly 15 percent in market share this year, with $2.2 billion in total revenue predicted for the channel in 2024. Similarly, OOH marks its best year post-pandemic with a forecasted growth of 10 percent in 2023, although it won’t hit pre-pandemic percentages for a few years.

Why it matters:

Retail media, cinema, and OOH’s trajectories are arguably the most illustrative signs yet of a rebounding post-pandemic global ad market. Retail, in particular, is perhaps the second-biggest marketing story of the year (behind Generative AI) as it continues to emerge as a game changer in advertisers’ playbooks. At this year’s annual Advertising Week in New York, the potential of retail’s rich first-party shopper data — and the ability it can afford marketers to steer media plans and improve audience connections — consumed lobby chatter. Further underscoring retail media’s dominance, late last year GroupM predicted the channel would grow by 60 percent, with a caveat that its forecast is “potentially on the conservative side.”

2023 global ad market revenue growth by channel graph showing 9.8% for retail media, 10.3% for OOH, and 14.7% for cinema.