In uncertain waters, smart marketers are holding the line

Tariffs were barely mentioned outright at this year’s major upfronts, but economic uncertainty was a recurring theme — casting a long shadow over presentations.

NBCUniversal preached flexibility. Warner Bros. Discovery promised to simplify ad buying to give advertisers more transparency, control and direct access. Disney leaned into embracing unpredictability, encouraging brands to plan for multiple scenarios.

“It’s very much business as usual right now while we plan for a future of uncertainty,” Disney’s president of global advertising, Rita Ferro, said.

Ferro, of course, was also asking advertisers to make major commitments (Disney secured around $9.5 billion at last year’s upfront). But history shows she has a point.

There’s evidence spanning a century — from the Great Depression to the Covid 19 pandemic and ensuing inflation — that shows brands that keep investing in advertising during turbulent times come out ahead. Those that don’t may fall behind.

“Brands that don’t flinch in the face of all of this uncertainty and volatility are going to continue to be strong,” says J. Walker Smith, Kantar’s consulting division knowledge lead.

So far, most marketers have been in a holding pattern before making sharp changes to their ad budgets. Two holding companies, WPP and Publicis, recently said tariff-related uncertainty hasn’t yet impacted their clients’ budgets. Still, some companies are cutting spend.

Ford, for one, isn’t pulling back. In response to tariffs, the carmaker launched employee pricing for everyone in the U.S.

“The smartest marketers aren’t playing defense, they’re innovating,” Stephanie Spicer, president of lūquire, tells The Current. “It’s not just smart advertising — it’s a business decision wrapped in a marketing strategy. That’s the kind of thinking agencies and their clients should be embracing right now — timely, relevant, rooted in what people actually need.”

A century of lessons going back to the Great Depression

There’s a track record of smart marketing driving outsized results in tough times.

In January 2009, months into the Great Recession, Hyundai launched a program allowing customers who lost their jobs to return to Hyundai without any negative consequences. The carmaker doubled down on the program by airing a Super Bowl ad the next month. By mid-2009, it had its highest market share ever in the U.S.

Looking back even further, when the Great Depression hit, Post rolled back its ad spending to cut costs. Meanwhile, Kellogg’s doubled its ad budget, investing heavily in radio to promote its new cereal, Rice Krispies, starring Snap, Crackle and Pop. By 1933, Kellogg’s profits rose by 30%.

Coca-Cola also launched an iconic character in the throes of the Depression, introducing the famous Santa Claus Coke ad in 1931. Fast-forward to the inflation spikes of 2022, the drink giant significantly increased its marketing spend.

The move paid off. The company reported that net sales increased 11% year over year, with Coca-Cola’s leadership saying marketing investment was key to this growth.

Economic pressure drives transformation

Economic downturns also accelerate transformation for the entire advertising ecosystem. New channels rise. Strategies evolve. Better products emerge.

Scope3 CEO Brian O’Kelley wrote on LinkedIn that ad tech’s next industry leaders will be born from this moment.

LiveRamp CEO Scott Howe agrees. He recalls how ad spend moved to Google Search after the dot-com crash in 2000 and how Facebook surged after the financial crisis in 2008.

“Each pullback has triggered a shift in how budgets are allocated — moving from less measurable channels to those that offer greater accountability. We’re seeing that same pattern unfold today,” Howe wrote on LinkedIn.

Speaking with The Current, Howe says the no-regret move today is making every dollar accountable and measurable. As an agency executive at Avenue A (now named Razorfish) during the dot-com crash, he survived thanks to this kind of thinking.

“If you know what works, you can eliminate what’s not working on your media plan,” he says. “And you’ll look like a genius. And I think that’s true every single recession. The winners have gone in and told that story.”

Getting outsized value during a downtown

During tough economic times, auction-based ad inventory goes down, according to Kris Tait, Croud’s chief business officer. This creates a window for brands to get more value out of the same spend, he argues. Brand building during valleys will lead to peaks in the long term.

“If you just maintain your investment, you get so much more value,” Tait says.

Tait’s recession playbook is simple: Maintain investment and don’t let your CFO slash your marketing budget. That’s the costliest mistake a brand can make. Tait says now is a great time to test brand media investment because of discounted pricing.

This is where agility matters most, says Kantar’s Smith. The brands that make measurement core to their strategies, can adjust and optimize quickly to track the changing moment.

“If you’re moving fast, you will make mistakes,” Smith says. “But if you’re moving fast, you can correct those mistakes quickly.”