The year of outcomes: Why reach alone won’t cut it anymore

For years, digital advertising has measured success by exposure, that is, who saw the ad. It was all about counting impressions and assuming that reach would eventually translate into results. But in today’s data-driven world, why settle for guessing when you can measure with confidence?

The old model rewards cheap reach and doesn’t hold media accountable for delivering real business outcomes. Even worse, multiple partners often take credit for the same result — with no clear source of truth to understand which media buys are performing and which are being tuned out.

Now there’s a smarter way: Start with the outcome. Who bought that stroller, those running shoes, that set of noise-canceling headphones or finally booked their dream vacation? Then work backward: What channels did they engage with? Which ads contributed to making that happen? Which moments mattered the most?

Outcome-oriented measurement doesn’t just explain what worked — it unlocks the insights to find the next buyer, even if that buyer has never heard of your brand. That’s transformative. So much so that I believe the next 12 months will see major shifts across our industry in terms of how we think about measurement.

What’s driving the shift?

Technology has caught up with ambition. Access to consumer-behavior data is no longer a competitive advantage; instead, it is table stakes to secure investment. Let’s break down what’s changed.

1. Access to real-time conversion data

Modern point-of-sale systems can now deliver purchase data for insights in hours instead of weeks. Cloud environments like Snowflake and Amperity give marketers the flexibility to marry transaction data with audience insights — without sensitive information needing to leave their walls. This has unlocked a new era of visibility, evidenced by the influx of retail data monetization, from Kroger to Dollar General to United Airlines.

And the scale is massive. Take Kroger, for example. The retailer taps into purchasing data from 60 million households and captures 96% of all transactions through its loyalty program. That gives advertisers access to highly granular, SKU-level insights tied directly to real-world shopper behavior.

2. Accuracy in consumer identity

We’ve moved beyond targeting by DMA or devices. Today’s identity solutions connect exposure across households and individuals, enabling brands to follow a consumer’s journey from a connected TV (CTV) ad to a podcast, to a digital news site, even to digital billboards (DOOH). Imagine that traveler planning their next big vacation, engaging with all these touchpoints before finally booking the trip.

This kind of insight is made possible by the growth of authenticated traffic and durable IDs like Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), RampID, ID5, and new entrants like Experian’s LUID.

The result is a far clearer view of what’s influencing purchase behavior over time — and how to repeat it.

3. Accurate measurement built for now, not the next quarter

For years, marketers have relied on siloed attribution or media mix modeling (MMM), which can take months, if not years, and cost millions. But retail media has changed expectations. Today, closed-loop measurement is a baseline expectation — and outcome-based partners are helping brands go even further.

Take EDO, a leading TV outcomes company that ties ad exposure to real-world behavior in near real time. By analyzing spikes in search activity immediately following a TV or streaming ad, EDO helps marketers understand which messages are prompting consumer action — not in theory, but in practice.

EDO found that when a QSR brand is on air, its website traffic increases by an average of 11.5% above baseline. Moreover, it notes, “TV doesn’t just work in a silo — it boosts the effectiveness of other digital channels, enhancing web traffic driven by display ads by 82%, social by 62% and referrals by 27%”

Why it matters?

This shift isn’t just about analytics — it’s about performance. Advertisers can now:

• Understand what’s truly driving results, instead of trying to extrapolate exposure to purchase
• Optimize campaigns in real time, not after the fact
• Hold every media channel accountable for actual outcomes
• And most critically, unlock net new buyers based on what actually works
  

Outcome-based advertising isn’t just a better model. It’s the new engine of modern marketing — and the brands that embrace it aren’t simply tracking performance. They’re accelerating it. And 2025 will be the year this value comes to life for the world’s most innovative brands.

The Current is owned and operated by The Trade Desk Inc.