Agility wins the aisle: How retailers can thrive in an uncertain holiday season

It’s my favorite time of year again! Spring cleaning at home and holiday planning at work. What can be better than cleaning up the yard, planting flowers and then sitting at your desk to think through holiday strategies?

This year, however, things feel very different. Like the changing of seasons, holiday is a certainty. But this season, there is uncertainty around when holiday shopping will ramp up and if it will bring a flurry of activity or something bleaker. Tariffs are impacting supply chain and pricing strategies, consumer sentiment is low and retail media network growth is slowing as brands pull back on media spend.

Holiday plans can’t wait, and they need flexibility to react to economic changes — positive or negative. This holiday planning season, my approach is guided by agility over certainty. This means agility in all aspects of how I work with retailers: from content and creative strategies to media channels, from audience targeting to promotional plans. 

So, what can retailers do? Build playbooks this spring that account for the ups and downs in holiday activities (and eventually sales) to ensure that constant change doesn’t leave them scrambling to determine what to do next. 

Adaptable content and creative for every shopper moment 

Agile messaging, offers and content should already be a part of a retailer’s strategy, but with advances in dynamic creative optimization (DCO) tools and AI as a versioning tool, retailers have more opportunities than before for content at scale. DCO unlocks the ability to change offers by region or audience to meet price sensitivities or product availability. Through these tools, personalizing creative doesn’t need to come with the expense of scaling resources.

We anticipate that shopper-created content around budget-friendly holiday decorating, parties and meals will trend, so think about how your content strategy can be a part of the conversation with a regional or local flair.

Media that moves with the market

While it’s been an encouraging trend that retail media network (RMN) budgets remain intact because of their ties to sales impact, we’re already seeing brands and retailers pull back on media spend to hold on to budgets and brace for what’s next. For retailers reliant on their RMN to drive margin for the organization, getting ahead of a dip in spend is key.

If your brand advertisers can’t fulfill their joint business plan (JBP) commitments in onsite and offsite media, think about other tactics you can offer to help them achieve their sales goals and deliver better shopping experiences. Consider nontraditional media solutions, like having RMNs work closely with merchants on in-store activations, shopping events or gamification opportunities around holiday shopping. These experiences still reward customers for loyalty and allow the RMN to learn more about shopper behaviors, even if their basket is smaller than last holiday.

With consumers unsure of how tariff pricing will impact them — will it be a visible surcharge, or will prices just be higher? — offering some transparency can help inform buying decisions. Think about which products won’t be impacted by tariffs or where your organization is keeping prices low and find ways to showcase these items. Showing customers a cart of unaffected items can go a long way in making them feel confident about shopping with you.

Unified audience planning for efficient engagement 

This may be the time to rethink your audience strategy. Are you still planning your campaigns in silos across merchant teams, RMN and brand marketing? If so, you could be wasting working media dollars and annoying your customers with mixed messages or too many communications. Instead, think about a unified approach to your audience strategy and ensure there’s audience governance, so your highest-value customers aren’t overwhelmed with messages. 

You may also see new shoppers coming into your store as they budget and shop differently. I predict we’ll start seeing people “shop with friends” to split the cost of groceries and other household essentials, especially those sold in larger formats. Think about how you want to engage these new shoppers across shopping trips and perhaps rethink bundles and assortments.

Promotions that differentiate instead of discount

This season’s biggest concern related to promotion is that it becomes a race to the bottom. We already saw this last Thanksgiving with retailers outdoing each other on cost-per-person bundles for holiday dinners. While shopper price sensitivities are very real, looking for ways to create experiences instead of just offering deeper discounts can build loyalty, reward shoppers and keep them coming back throughout what we expect to be a long holiday shopping season. 

This can still be a great holiday shopping (and celebratory) season. Uncertainty at checkout doesn’t need to come with the added stress of uncertain plans. Use the spring season to think ahead and plan for a few likely scenarios so that, come September, you’re able to deliver revenue back to brands and great value and experiences to your shoppers.

This op-ed represents the views and opinions of the author and not of The Current, a division of The Trade Desk, or The Trade Desk. The appearance of the op-ed on The Current does not constitute an endorsement by The Current or The Trade Desk.